January 16, 2023
2023 Will See Massive Retail Telecom Layoffs - Death Of Telco Retail & Telecom Dealer Communities
We are anticipating very large global Telecom Operator layoffs in 2023. The writing was on the wall dating to the ridiculous M&A activity between 1998 and Q1 2001 that was fueled with debt.
If you are a Telecom Operator Dealer or Agent you should be growing your revenue streams away from dependencies on your Telecom Partner. How much have your 1-time activation fees dropped in the last 5 years? How about that residual?
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The Question Becomes What Are The Parameters One Should Consider :
- When cellphone penetration rates were 20% the opportunity for growth was prevalent.
- When cellphone penetration rates were 80% (early 2000’s) the industry needed a new growth/up sell driver = Smartphones.
- When Smartphone penetration rates are 90%+ what is a Telecom Operator to do?
- Has anyone checked the growth Driver of a Telco Operator P&L for the last 5 years?
- Has it been ARPU growth or Hardware growth?
- What happens to Telco P&L when Device Lifecycles expand to 3.5 years : https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7014627243217862658/
- Anyone checked the debt levels on the Balance Sheet & when these debt instruments are due?
- How much debt repayment has occurred between 2001 and 2022 vs. equity buybacks vs. dividend payments?
- What is the risk to dividend payments taking into consideration : Higher interest & OPEX environment due to inflation
- Do Telecom Operators know how to financially engineer? Are Smartphone subsidies a good example of financial engineering?
- Can a Telecom Operator "financially engineer" by restructuring their Dealer Channel & Dealer Approach
We reported in 2020 how the pandemic was going to accelerate the much needed changes in thinking in Telco Retail : https://www.mobilityview.com/media/related-links/the-future-of-mobile-retailing-a-broader-assortment-of-products-services
The announcement last week on T-Mobile closing hundreds of stores in Retail and the commentary their President made around the future of Retail is the outcome (see article source below).
What is quite interesting is the success that T-Mobile is having relative to that of its peers in Smartphone acquisitions… The real question is why are they doing these store closures in light of outsized market share acquisition?
Could it be that the commercial models and the physical footprint does not actually support the ARPU being generated?
Is what we are seeing with T-Mobile going to occur globally in Telco Retail?
The answer is a resounding YES.
One of the canaries in the coalmine was the executive shakeups that occurred at Vodafone, Verizon & Orange late in 2022 : https://www.linkedin.com/posts/thomdamstra_leansta...
What Is The Solution?
- New thinking & non-status quo approaches
- New products & services (and we don’t mean products that have been around for 30 years that Telecom Operators “discover as new for them” & then give away.)
- Differentiation of these new products & services by the Telco through bundling & upselling of incremental value
The long and the short of it is that there are going to be wide scale Retail layoffs in Telecom Operators globally this year and the recession and inflationary environments exposed the fundamental broken nature of how Telecom Operators are and have historically executed in Retail in an era of high debt, high interest costs, no growth in the category, and a lack of truly new compelling products & services that can be executed.
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- 70% More cost effective than a Stipend for Smartphone Reimbursement
- 75% More cost effective than a Company provided phone
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- Keeps employees reimbursed & happy in a tax efficient lower cost way than a stipend or company provided phone
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Tax Deduction Changes For Australian Gig Workers : https://lnkd.in/geT95ZTM
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Smartphone global tax trends : https://lnkd.in/dbvArumk
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Article Source : T-Mobile Retail Layoffs - https://www.mobileworldlive.com/featured-content/top-three/t-mobile-shifts-retail-strategy-layoffs-follow/
Article Source : T-Mobile ending T-Mobile Preferred Retailer Subdealer program : https://nwida.org/t-mobile-cutting-more-dealers
Article Source : Bell Canada Dealers sue Bell for $200 million in 2008 due to reduced commissions : https://mobilesyrup.com/2008/10/21/bell-slapped-wi...
Article Source : Wireless Advocates (600+ Locations) shuts down with no notice in December 2022 :https://nwida.org/wireless-advocates-shuts-down-wi...