June 03, 2019
Canalys: Smartphone shipment forecast cut to 1.35 billion for 2019 as uncertainty prevails
Canalys released its updated global smartphone forecasts on 28 May 2019. The latest numbers show that smartphone shipments will reach 1.35 billion units in 2019, a year-on-year decline of 3.1%. Due to the many uncertainties surrounding the US/China trade talks, the US Executive Order signed on 15 May and subsequent developments, Canalys has lowered its forecasts to reflect an uncertain future.
Canalys’ base assumption is that restrictions will be imposed stringently on Huawei, once the 90-day reprieve expires, having a significant impact on its ability to roll-out new devices in the short term, especially outside of China. Canalys anticipates that Huawei is taking steps to mitigate the effect of component and service supply issues, but its overseas potential will be hampered for some time. The US and China may eventually reach a trade deal to alleviate the pressure on Huawei, but if and when this will happen is far from clear.
Smartphone Shipments To Shrink In 2019 and 2020
mobilityView predicted this reality over 18 months ago along with the increase in Average Sales Price (ASP) of the mobile OEMS like Apple and Samsung. Given that operators are increasingly out of the subsidization game and the world is moving to a more “Open Market” approach (Operator subsidies fall by the way side and greater device choice as retailers import their own lineups).
Using the Verizon S10 4G vs. 5G pricing differentials and understanding that 5G will have a much bigger impact on EBOM (Electronic Bill of Materials0 and the related SBOM (Software Bill of Materials), we are predicting a lower number than the authors of the report. The sale of devices will also be impacted by Apple fans waiting for a 5G device to become available and will hold off on upgrading their existing 4G device to a newer 4G device.
Impact to operator is that they will be increasing at a higher rate the base plans for 4G and 5G, as hardware sales have been the only growth area on the P&L of significance.
Canalys: Smartphone shipment forecast cut to 1.35 billion for 2019 as uncertainty prevails
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